{"id":434,"date":"2015-09-22T13:29:36","date_gmt":"2015-09-22T12:29:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/?page_id=434"},"modified":"2024-09-19T09:27:48","modified_gmt":"2024-09-19T08:27:48","slug":"advanced-environmental-systems-analysis-2nd-mod","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/?page_id=434","title":{"rendered":"Advanced Environmental Systems Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The course offers an in-depth analysis of policy and decision-making under global change. The emphasis is on concepts and tools for modeling the future evolution of climatic and socio-economic conditions across different spatial and temporal scales, quantifying their multisectoral impacts, assessing the variety of uncertainties associated with the generation of future scenarios, and developing tools to assist decision-makers. Additionally, the course provides an overview of different environmental models, including water and air quality, land use and crop, energy and power systems, and their use for planning adaptation strategies. Real-world examples and numerical applications will be developed as part of the course laboratory and project assignment.<\/p>\n<p>Detailed topics include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Introduction to the course<\/strong> &#8211; the climate change debate; environmental decision making under climate change; from climate to global change<\/li>\n<li><strong>Scenario-based analysis<\/strong> &#8211; the traditional top-down approach, from global scenarios to the local scale; climate scenarios and IPCC assessment reports (emission scenarios vs representative concentration pathways vs shared socioeconomic pathways); climate models and downscaling methods; Integrated Assessment Models (e.g., DICE, WITCH).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Impact models<\/strong> \u2013 local models simulating multisectoral impacts; hydrology and water quality models; air quality models; energy planning and power system models; land use and crop models.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Scenario-neutral analysis<\/strong> &#8211; the alternative bottom-up approach, from local vulnerabilities to global scenarios; sensitivity analysis and synthetic generation of external drivers; stress test and scenario discovery.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Uncertainty analysis and robust decisions<\/strong> &#8211; decisions under risk vs decisions under uncertainty; robustness criteria (e.g., Wald, Hurwicz, Savage, Laplace); robustness vs flexibility; optimal sequencing and adaptation pathways.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Bibliography<\/span>:<em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dessler, A.E. (2019). The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change. Cambridge University Press (third edition)<\/li>\n<li>Ray, P. and C. Brown (2015).\u00a0<em>Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design. The Decision Tree Framework<\/em>. World Bank Group.<\/li>\n<li>Peterson, M.\u00a0(2017).\u00a0<em>An introduction to decision theory<\/em>.\u00a0Cambridge University Press (second edition).<\/li>\n<li><em>Additional material (slides, papers)\u00a0are provided throughout the course.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The course offers an in-depth analysis of policy and decision-making under global change. The emphasis is on concepts and tools for modeling the future evolution<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-434","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=434"}],"version-history":[{"count":33,"href":"https:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/434\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1072,"href":"https:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/434\/revisions\/1072"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/giuliani.faculty.polimi.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}