The course offers an in-depth analysis of policy and decision-making under global change. The emphasis is on concepts and tools for modeling the future evolution of climatic and socio-economic conditions across different spatial and temporal scales, quantifying their multisectoral impacts, assessing the variety of uncertainties associated with the generation of future scenarios, and developing tools to assist decision-makers. Additionally, the course provides an overview of different environmental models, including water and air quality, land use and crop, energy and power systems, and their use for planning adaptation strategies. Real-world examples and numerical applications will be developed as part of the course laboratory and project assignment.
Detailed topics include:
- Introduction to the course – the climate change debate; environmental decision making under climate change; from climate to global change
- Scenario-based analysis – the traditional top-down approach, from global scenarios to the local scale; climate scenarios and IPCC assessment reports (emission scenarios vs representative concentration pathways vs shared socioeconomic pathways); climate models and downscaling methods; Integrated Assessment Models (e.g., DICE, WITCH).
- Impact models – local models simulating multisectoral impacts; hydrology and water quality models; air quality models; energy planning and power system models; land use and crop models.
- Scenario-neutral analysis – the alternative bottom-up approach, from local vulnerabilities to global scenarios; sensitivity analysis and synthetic generation of external drivers; stress test and scenario discovery.
- Uncertainty analysis and robust decisions – decisions under risk vs decisions under uncertainty; robustness criteria (e.g., Wald, Hurwicz, Savage, Laplace); robustness vs flexibility; optimal sequencing and adaptation pathways.
Bibliography:
- Dessler, A.E. (2019). The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change. Cambridge University Press (third edition)
- Ray, P. and C. Brown (2015). Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design. The Decision Tree Framework. World Bank Group.
- Peterson, M. (2017). An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge University Press (second edition).
- Additional material (slides, papers) are provided throughout the course.